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JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute 2006 98(10):715-717; doi:10.1093/jnci/djj190
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© The Author 2006. Published by Oxford University Press.

BRIEF COMMUNICATION

Preoperative Nomogram Predicting the 10-Year Probability of Prostate Cancer Recurrence After Radical Prostatectomy

Andrew J. Stephenson, Peter T. Scardino, James A. Eastham, Fernando J. Bianco, Jr., Zohar A. Dotan, Paul A. Fearn, Michael W. Kattan

Affiliations of authors: Department of Urology, Sidney Kimmel Center for Prostate and Urologic Cancers, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY (AJS, PTS, JAE, FJB, ZAD, PAF); Department of Quantitative Health Sciences, Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Cleveland, OH (MWK)

Correspondence to: Michael W. Kattan, PhD, Department of Quantitative Health Sciences, Cleveland Clinic Foundation, 9500 Euclid Ave., Cleveland, OH 44195 (e-mail: kattanm{at}ccf.org).

An existing preoperative nomogram predicts the probability of prostate cancer recurrence, defined by prostate-specific antigen (PSA), at 5 years after radical prostatectomy based on clinical stage, serum PSA, and biopsy Gleason grade. In an updated and enhanced nomogram, we have extended the predictions to 10 years, added the prognostic information of systematic biopsy results, and enabled the predictions to be adjusted for the year of surgery. Cox regression analysis was used to model the clinical information for 1978 patients treated by two high-volume surgeons from our institution. The nomogram was externally validated on an independent cohort of 1545 patients with a concordance index of 0.79 and was well calibrated with respect to observed outcome. The inclusion of the number of positive and negative biopsy cores enhanced the predictive accuracy of the model. Thus, a new preoperative nomogram provides robust predictions of prostate cancer recurrence up to 10 years after radical prostatectomy.


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