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JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute 2006 98(23):1673-1675; doi:10.1093/jnci/djj501
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© The Author 2006. Published by Oxford University Press.

EDITORIAL

The Risk of Cancer Risk Prediction: "What Is My Risk of Getting Breast Cancer?"

Joann G. Elmore, Suzanne W. Fletcher

Affiliations of authors: Department of Medicine, University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle, WA (JGE); Department of Ambulatory Care and Prevention, Harvard Medical School and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, Boston, MA (SWF)

Correspondence to: Joann G. Elmore, MD, MPH, Division of General Internal Medicine, University of Washington School of Medicine, Harborview Medical Center, 325 Ninth Ave., Box 359780, Seattle, WA 98104-2499 (e-mail: jelmore@u.washington.edu).

The first 10% of the full text of this article appears below.

It's tough making predictions, especially about the future.

—Attributed to many individuals, including Yogi Berra. But, as Yogi himself said, "I really didn't say everything I said." (1)

Prediction is the foundation of cancer risk assessment. Risk prediction is accomplished by identifying characteristics that are associated with a high or low risk of developing a disease and then combining those characteristics in a statistical model to produce a probability estimate of developing the disease over a given period. Historically, demographic and clinical risk factors have been used in risk prediction models; more recently, genetic makeup has been added to certain models (2). Cancer risk prediction models have been used to estimate the costs of the population burden of cancer, plan intervention trials, create benefit–risk indices, and design prevention strategies for at-risk populations (3).

There is increasing interest in . . . [Full Text of this Article]


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