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JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute 2006 98(21):1509-1510; doi:10.1093/jnci/djj455
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© The Author 2006. Published by Oxford University Press.

EDITORIAL

Prostate-Specific Antigen and Prostate Cancer Prognosis

Timothy R. Church

Affiliation of author: Division of Environmental Health Sciences, University of Minnesota School of Public Health, Minneapolis, MN.

Correspondence to: Timothy R. Church, PhD, Division of Environmental Health Sciences, University of Minnesota School of Public Health, 200 Oak St. SE, Ste. 350, Minneapolis, MN 55455-2008 (e-mail: trc@cccs.umn.edu).

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The impulse in clinical medicine is to reduce diagnostic testing to dichotomous decisions: positive for increased risk of the disease and negative for decreased risk (1). Some of this tendency stems from discomfort with or distrust of mathematical manipulation and some from the need for simplicity and clarity. However, ultimately a diagnosis is a complex judgment by the clinician, incorporating a variety of data, including test results, symptoms, appearance of the patient, and intuition. Combining these disparate sources into a single "posterior probability," in the language of Bayesian statistics, is an uncertain and undoubtedly biased process when . . . [Full Text of this Article]


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