© 2001 by Oxford University Press
Journal of the National Cancer Institute, Vol. 93, No. 5, 334-335,
March 7, 2001
© 2001 Oxford University Press
EDITORIAL |
Validating and Improving Models for Projecting the Absolute Risk of Breast Cancer
Affiliations of authors: M. H. Gail, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD; J. P. Costantino, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, PA.
Correspondence to: Mitchell H. Gail, M.D., Ph.D., National Institutes of Health, EPS-8032, Bethesda, MD 20892 (gailm@exchange.nih.gov).
In this issue of the Journal, Rockhill et al. (1) use data from 1992 to 1997 from white women in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) to address the validity and uses of the model of Gail et al. (2) for estimating breast cancer risk. One issue is how well the model predicts the risk of invasive breast cancer in various subgroups of women ("calibration"). A second issue is how sharply the model discriminates women who will develop breast cancer from those who will not ("discriminatory accuracy"). Rockhill et al. also comment on applications of the model.
The model of Gail et al. (2) was based on follow-up of white women in the Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project (BCDDP). A nested case–control study in the BCDDP was used to estimate multivariate relative risks based on age at
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