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Journal of the National Cancer Institute Advance Access originally published online on September 23, 2008
JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute 2008 100(19):1339-1341; doi:10.1093/jnci/djn330
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© The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press.

EDITORIALS

Increasing Breast Cancer Incidence in China: The Numbers Add Up

Regina G. Ziegler, William F. Anderson, Mitchell H. Gail

Affiliation of authors: Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD

Correspondence to: Regina G. Ziegler, PhD, MPH, Epidemiology and Biostatistics Program, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, EPS 8098, Bethesda, MD 20892-7246 (e-mail: zieglerr@mail.nih.gov).

The first 150 words of the full text of this article appear below.

In this issue of Journal, Linos et al. (1) have combined data on the distribution of breast cancer risk factors from a representative survey of Chinese women aged 35–49 years in 2001 (2) with a breast cancer cumulative incidence model (3,4) to estimate the number of women in the survey population and, by extension, among the 130 million Chinese women aged 35–49 years in 2001 who would develop breast cancer over the next 20 years. They project nearly 2.5 million breast cancer cases in China by 2021 in this cohort and suggest some changes in lifestyle that might reduce an impending epidemic of breast cancer.

Two complementary approaches can be used to project cancer rates. One method is based on models, such as the Rosner–Colditz log incidence breast cancer model (3,4) used in Linos et al. (1. . . [Full Text of this Article]


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