Journal of the National Cancer Institute Advance Access originally published online on December 3, 2009
JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute 2009 101(24):1721-1724; doi:10.1093/jnci/djp415
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© The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press.
Time Trends in Brain Tumor Incidence Rates in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden, 1974–2003
Affiliations of authors: Institute of Cancer Epidemiology, Danish Cancer Society, Copenhagen, Denmark (ID, CJ, JS); Tampere School of Public Health, University of Tampere, Tampere, Finland (AA); Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, Helsinki, Finland (AA); Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden (MF); Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, Norway and Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo, Norway (LK)
Correspondence to: Isabelle Deltour, PhD, Institute of Cancer Epidemiology, Danish Cancer Society, Strandboulevarden 49, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark (e-mail: deltour{at}cancer.dk).
In Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden, the use of mobile phones increased sharply in the mid-1990s; thus, time trends in brain tumor incidence after 1998 may provide information about possible tumor risks associated with mobile phone use. We investigated time trends in the incidence of glioma and meningioma in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden from 1974 to 2003, using data from national cancer registries. We used joinpoint regression models to analyze the annual incidence rates of glioma and meningioma. During this period, 59 984 men and women aged 20–79 years were diagnosed with brain tumors in a population of 16 million adults. All statistical tests were two-sided. From 1974 to 2003, the incidence rate of glioma increased by 0.5% per year (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.2% to 0.8%) among men and by 0.2% per year (95% CI = –0.1% to 0.5%) among women and that of meningioma increased by 0.8% per year (95% CI = 0.4% to 1.3%) among men, and after the early 1990s, by 3.8% per year (95% CI = 3.2% to 4.4%) among women. No change in incidence trends were observed from 1998 to 2003, the time when possible associations between mobile phone use and cancer risk would be informative about an induction period of 5–10 years.
| CONTEXT AND CAVEATS Prior knowledge Although mobile phone use has frequently been proposed as a risk factor for brain tumors, neither a biological mechanism to explain this association nor the etiology of brain tumors is known. Mobile phone use in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden increased sharply in the mid-1990s. Study design An investigation of time trends in the incidence of glioma and meningioma among adults from 1974 to 2003 in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden using data from national cancer registries. Contribution From 1974 to 2003, brain tumor incidence rates in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden were stable, decreased, or continued a gradual increase that started before the introduction of mobile phones. No change in incidence trends was observed from 1998 to 2003, the time when possible associations between mobile phone use and cancer risk would be informative about an induction period of 5–10 years. Implications The lack of a trend change in incidence from 1998 to 2003 suggests that the induction period relating mobile phone use to brain tumors exceeds 5–10 years, the increased risk in this population is too small to be observed, the increased risk is restricted to subgroups of brain tumors or mobile phone users, or there is no increased risk. Limitations Possible incompleteness of cancer registration and the increased access to improved diagnostic tools may limit the interpretation of the trends in meningioma incidence over time. From the Editors
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Manuscript received May 6, 2009; revised September 28, 2009; accepted October 12, 2009.
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