© 1989 by Oxford University Press
Journal of the National Cancer Institute, Vol. 81, No. 24, 1879-1886,
December 20, 1989
© 1989 Oxford University Press
Projecting Individualized Probabilities of Developing Breast Cancer for White Females Who Are Being Examined Annually
1Biostatistics Branch, Division of Cancer Etiology, National Cancer Institute Bethesda, MD
2Environmental Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Etiology, National Cancer Institute Bethesda, MD
3Biometry Branch, Division of Cancer Etiology, National Cancer Institute Bethesda, MD
4Clinical Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Etiology, National Cancer Institute Bethesda, MD
*Correspondence to: Dr. Mitchell H. Gau\ Executive Plaza North, Rm. 403, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, MD 20892.
To assist in medical counseling, we present a method to estimate the chance that a woman with given age and risk factors will develop breast cancer over a specified interval. The risk factors used were age at menarche, age at first live birth, number of previous biopsies, and number of first-degree relatives with breast cancer. A model of relative risks for various combinations of these factors was developed from case-control data from the Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project (BCDDP). The model allowed for the fact that relative risks associated with previous breast biopsies were smaller for women aged 50 or more than for younger women. Thus, the proportional hazards assumption was relaxed to allow separate proportional hazards models for those under age 50 and for those of age 50 or more. The baseline age-specific hazard rate, which is the rate for a patient without identified risk factors, is computed as the product of the observed age-specific composite hazard rate times the quantity 1 minus the attributable risk. We calculated individualized breast cancer probabilities from information on relative risks and the baseline hazard rate. These calculations take competing risks and the interval of risk into account. Our data were derived from women who participated in the BCDDP and who tended to return for periodic examinations. For this reason, the risk projections given are probably most reliable for counseling women who plan to be examined about once a year. [J Natl Cancer Inst 81: 1879–1886, 1989]
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K. Ariail, C. Watts, and D. J. Bowen Retention in a Breast Cancer Risk Information Trial: Motivations of a Population-Based Sample of Women Health Educ Behav, October 1, 2006; 33(5): 591 - 603. [Abstract] [PDF]
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J. Eng-Wong, J. C. Reynolds, D. Venzon, D. Liewehr, S. Gantz, D. Danforth, E. T. Liu, C. Chow, and J. Zujewski Effect of Raloxifene on Bone Mineral Density in Premenopausal Women at Increased Risk of Breast Cancer J. Clin. Endocrinol. Metab., October 1, 2006; 91(10): 3941 - 3946. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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 S. K. Plevritis, B. M. Sigal, P. Salzman, J. Rosenberg, and P. Glynn Chapter 12: A Stochastic Simulation Model of U.S. Breast Cancer Mortality Trends From 1975 to 2000 J Natl Cancer Inst Monographs, October 1, 2006; 2006(36): 86 - 95. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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Y. Yasui, P. A. Newcomb, A. Trentham-Dietz, and K. M. Egan Familial Relative Risk Estimates for Use in Epidemiologic Analyses Am. J. Epidemiol., October 1, 2006; 164(7): 697 - 705. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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M. L. Bondy and L. A. Newman Assessing breast cancer risk: evolution of the gail model. J Natl Cancer Inst, September 6, 2006; 98(17): 1172 - 1173. [Full Text] [PDF]
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W. E. Barlow, E. White, R. Ballard-Barbash, P. M. Vacek, L. Titus-Ernstoff, P. A. Carney, J. A. Tice, D. S. M. Buist, B. M. Geller, R. Rosenberg, et al. Prospective breast cancer risk prediction model for women undergoing screening mammography. J Natl Cancer Inst, September 6, 2006; 98(17): 1204 - 1214. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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J. Chen, D. Pee, R. Ayyagari, B. Graubard, C. Schairer, C. Byrne, J. Benichou, and M. H. Gail Projecting absolute invasive breast cancer risk in white women with a model that includes mammographic density. J Natl Cancer Inst, September 6, 2006; 98(17): 1215 - 1226. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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M. E. Lippman, S. R. Cummings, D. P. Disch, J. L. Mershon, S. A. Dowsett, J. A. Cauley, and S. Martino Effect of Raloxifene on the Incidence of Invasive Breast Cancer in Postmenopausal Women with Osteoporosis Categorized by Breast Cancer Risk Clin. Cancer Res., September 1, 2006; 12(17): 5242 - 5247. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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T. R. Fears, D. Guerry IV, R. M. Pfeiffer, R. W. Sagebiel, D. E. Elder, A. Halpern, E. A. Holly, P. Hartge, and M. A. Tucker Identifying Individuals at High Risk of Melanoma: A Practical Predictor of Absolute Risk J. Clin. Oncol., August 1, 2006; 24(22): 3590 - 3596. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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F. L. Meyskens Jr and D. F. Ransohoff Predicting Risk for the Appearance of Melanoma J. Clin. Oncol., August 1, 2006; 24(22): 3522 - 3523. [Full Text] [PDF]
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M. Cazzaniga, G. Severi, C. Casadio, L. Chiapparini, U. Veronesi, and A. Decensi Atypia and ki-67 expression from ductal lavage in women at different risk for breast cancer. Cancer Epidemiol. Biomarkers Prev., July 1, 2006; 15(7): 1311 - 1315. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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M. R. Palomares, J. R.B. Machia, C. D. Lehman, J. R. Daling, and A. McTiernan Mammographic density correlation with gail model breast cancer risk estimates and component risk factors. Cancer Epidemiol. Biomarkers Prev., July 1, 2006; 15(7): 1324 - 1330. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
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